It’s been quite a while since I crunched some political numbers, so I thought I’d check back in with a series of diaries. Today, the latest edition of the Bush approval map.
Click to enlarge.
My, that’s pretty!
Memo to Democrats: this is an anvil for the falling Republicans. Please use it.
For perspective, at the time of the 2006 Democratic electoral wave, this is what the map looked like:
Click to enlarge.
So why am I posting this on Swing State Project? As I wrote many times before the 2006 election, low approval ratings represent an opportunity for Democrats, not a guarantee. As it turned out, those who did not approve of Bush in 2006 voted for their Democratic House incumbent. And those who did approve of Bush voted for their Republican House incumbent. If a similar dynamic plays out this year, it means almost all Democratic House incumbents are safe, while almost any Republican could be unseated by the right candidate running a good, well-funded campaign.
So Bush approval represented, in 2006 at least, a minimum performance level for incumbent Republicans. We can see a similar sort of effect in this year’s presidential race. McCain does not poll worse than Bush’s approval in any state, but he comes close in a few places (Hawaii and Wyoming). Here’s a map that shows the difference between McCain’s numbers (from Nate Silver’s trend-adjusted polling averages, captured last week) to Bush’s approval ratings:
Click to enlarge.
Note that this map does not show which states are most competitive. Instead, it shows where McCain is more popular than Bush. People who say they will vote for McCain but do not approve of Bush could do so for a number of reasons, and the numbers don’t tell us why or whether they’re different in different regions of the country. It’s probably safe to say that there’s a home state effect in Hawaii, though. McCain does best in comparison to Bush’s approval in Appalachia and the Northeast, and worst in the West and the Deep South. It is suspiciously familiar to the Democratic primary maps.
Tomorrow, the series continues with a look at the biggest issues: the economy and Iraq. After that, party approval, identification, and some House numbers. And finally, if the FEC gets its numbers out, some fundraising numbers.
Cross posted at DailyKos and Open Left.